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UNITED NATIONS, November 5, 2004: Three hundred years from now, the world’s population will have stabilized at about 9 billion and we will look forward to living until age 95. In Japan, that bastion of longevity, people will be hanging around until they’re 106. India, China and the United States will still be the most populous countries on the planet — if they still exist — and Africa’s share of the world’s population will double to 25 percent. The average woman will give birth to two children. Those are just a few possibilities projected in a U.N. report released Thursday, which lowers long-term population estimates because of new thinking about fertility rates in the future. The new report acknowledges that population projections are extremely iffy. “What will population trends to be like beyond 2050? No one really knows,” the report says. “Any demographic projections, if they go 100, 200 or 300 years into the future, are little more than guesses. “But the report says the exercise is necessary to help mankind reflect on short-term trends and whether actions should be taken to change them. It uses the metaphor of a basketball coach who calls a time-out just five minutes into a game going badly to avoid an unfavorable outcome.

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